Essential Thinker

The Adaptation Paradox

Rational convergence on current success eliminates the alternatives required for future success. When individuals abandon struggling approaches for winning ones, no one remains positioned to adapt when winning becomes losing. The most logical choice—joining the most successful culture, adopting proven strategies, following best practices—collectively creates catastrophic vulnerability. Optimising for present conditions destroys the diversity that enables adaptation to future conditions. What appears as wasteful redundancy serves as civilisational insurance against the inevitable obsolescence of any particular success. The individually rational decision becomes collectively suicidal, revealing why societies must subsidise apparent failure to survive genuine change.